“Know thyself.??? – Socrates
No, I’m not talking about analysis in a lie-down-on-the-couch-Freudian sense. I rather want to analyze my poker stats. After all, what is the point in gathering data about my play if I wouldn’t take the time to look at them thoroughly from time to time?
It has been a bit more than a month since I’ve started playing online poker. In the mean time, I’ve accumulated a whole bunch of hand histories in my Poker Tracker DB (If you don’t have any tracking program, yet, you definitely should get one.
Even without in-depth analysis you’ll be amazed about what you’ll find out about your play). Every now and then, typically after a long session, I’d have a quick glance at my key values, but not putting too much time and effort into that, especially because I knew that my sample size hasn’t been big enough. But now, that the number of my recorded hands are more significant, I think it’s high time to grind the numbers and identify my major leaks.
The two most interesting questions about this procedure for me are:
- “What do I expect to find?” and
- “How will the results differ from my expectations?“.
I’ve read quite a few very good articles about analyzing your Poker Tracker stats and what the key numbers are (My current favorite being “How to use Poker Tracker” by Pokey). I will definitely use a couple of these articles and guides to perform my in-depth analysis. And while I don’t know the answer to the second question (that will be the topic of a future post), I certainly do know what I expect.
The easiest result to predict is my overall rate of BB/hr (big blinds in limit and big bets in no-limit per hour). I can safely assume that this value will be negative, as I still am a losing player. I do have hopes of getting a clearer idea of which type of ring games suits me better, though. I think that I’m doing slightly better at limit games.
Looking at other values such as VP$IP (voluntarily put money into pot) and different aggression factors (AF) should give me a clue of where I can improve my general game play. I expect the VP$IP to be in an acceptable range because I’m pretty confident about my starting hand selection, but I have the feeling that my AF is going to be too low, especially on the turn and river.
My W$SD (won $ at the showdown) rate will probably be too low, I often seem to hang on to hands for too long. This also means that probably my WTSD (went to showdown) ratio will be too high. I’m really curious whether these values will be similar in both, limit and no-limit ring games. I’ve got the feeling that I might tend to hang on in limit games more often than in no-limit games.
All the other key factors are very difficult for me to predict, but I will make sure to give you an overview of which numbers I thought were interesting. So make sure you don’t miss the results in my next post, probably called “Analysis of a donk”…